Ethics, Epistemology, and Metaphysics of Risk (Research Council of Finland)
Risk judgments have a central role with respect to what we ought to do and believe. For example, whether Israel’s war in Gaza is morally justified depends in part on whether Israel’s actions reduces the risk of future terrorist attacks. It is often proper to blame a person who imposes unnecessary risks on us. Whether someone knows a fact depends in part on how great the risk that their belief is false. This project investigates what risk is and how it relates to ethical and epistemological questions. Can we understand knowledge in terms of risk? Can societal structures that impose risks on us harm us, even if the risks do not materialize? This project formulates a new theory of risk that incorporates elements of extant theories. The research utilizes model building in epistemic logic to map out structural properties of risk.
The Structure and Nature of Risk (Kone Foundation)
According to the prevalent probabilistic theory of risk, the riskiness of a detrimental event depends solely on how probable the event is. While the probabilistic theory is extremely powerful, it has recently been argued that it does not capture our everyday notion of risk. In a wide range of cases our intuitively correct risk judgments deviate from the predictions of the probabilistic theory. The probabilistic theory is also at odds with many of our epistemic and normative practices. For instance, high statistical likelihood is insufficient for conviction, but this is puzzling if the probabilistic theory is correct. After all, if the risk of wrongful conviction is sufficiently low, a verdict of guilt is appropriate. Some philosophers have tried to formulate theories that avoid the extensional problems that the probabilistic theory seems to suffer from. These theories, however, entail structural properties for risk that are extremely implausible, or so we argue. For instance, they entail that risks never add up. We formulate a novel theory of risk that holds onto the kind of structural properties that the probabilistic theory of risk entails, while vindicating the our intuitively correct risk judgments. The theory can be applied in decision-theoretic frameworks where the notion of risk is indispensable and is able to make good of our normative practices.
Events past & future
Jaakko Hirvelä 